In Paris, nearly one in two 6th grade students could be attending private schools by 2035.

According to a study by the Institute for Public Policy (IPP) published on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, the declining birth rate could profoundly transform the balance between public and private education in major French cities.

In Paris, the proportion of 6th-grade students enrolled in private schools could reach 50% by 2035, a consequence of a demographic decline affecting all major cities cities and reinforcing school segregation.

Based on data from INSEE and the Ministry of National Education, the study observes that the decrease in student numbers linked to the decline in the birth rate since 2010 "unbalances" the distribution between public and private schools: the latter maintains its numbers while the public sector absorbs almost all of the contraction, which mechanically increases the share of the private sector.

In Paris, the share of private schools is increasing considerably

The capital clearly illustrates this shift. Births there fell by 32% between 2010 and 2024 (from 31,440 to 21,484). First-grade enrollment began to decline six years after the start of the birth rate decrease, resulting in a 19% drop between 2016 and 2024. Sixth-grade enrollment began its decline five years later, falling by 10% between 2020 and 2024.

But the decline in enrollment does not affect public and private education in the same way. The number of students in private schools decreased by only 3.8% in CP (first grade) between 2016 and 2024 and by 1.4% in 6th grade between 2020 and 2024, compared to -24.4% and -14.4% for public schools. The share of private schools is thus increasing, reaching 27.5% in CP in 2024 (compared to 23% in 2016) and 38.7% in 6th grade (compared to 35.4% in 2020). If the trend continues, it could reach 33.6% in CP (first grade) in 2030 and 49.4% in 6th grade in 2035. According to researchers at the Institute, this development would "accentuate an already very strong social polarization," they warn. In 2024, 55% of 6th-grade students from very privileged backgrounds were enrolled in private schools. This proportion could climb to 72% by 2035, compared to only 7% for disadvantaged students.

This trend is also emerging in major French cities

In the 19 largest cities outside Paris, the dynamic is later and less pronounced, but follows the same trajectory. The decline in the birth rate is more recent and less marked (-17% between 2014 and 2024), and the contraction is only just beginning to affect first grade (CP), whose numbers are decreasing by -5% to -15% depending on the city between 2020 and 2024, with no visible impact yet on entry to sixth grade (6ème).

In this context, the share of private education is also expected to continue to grow in the coming years. Furthermore, the proportion of private schools for students entering first grade (CP) increased from 19.1% to 19.8% between 2020 and 2024 and could reach 22.3% in 2030. For sixth grade (6ème), where 36.3% of students were enrolled in private schools in 2024, this proportion could climb to 40.8% by 2035.

Equally Distribute Closures Between Private and Public Schools

Faced with this situation, IPP researchers propose several avenues to reverse these trends, notably by more equitably distributing class closures, which are currently almost entirely concentrated in the public sector.

The institute also recommends revising the private school funding rule, which is indexed to student enrollment, and incorporating objectives Explicit provisions for social diversity are included in the agreements between the State and contracted institutions.